Anticipating implications of geopolitical tensions
Keep track of geopolitical developments that affect your China-related activities. At the centre of these developments are the tensions relating to the status of Taiwan. The Taiwan Radar is a scenario-based overview, weekly updated, of recent geopolitical developments related to Taiwan.
The disputed status of Taiwan is at the core of the geopolitical struggle between China and the US. While Taiwan wants to preserve its autonomy, China aims to bring the island under its political control. The US, while not recognizing Taiwan as an independent state, provides the island with weapons to help it defend itself against China. As the rivalry between the US and China increases, tensions between China and Taiwan have been intensifying.
We will provide a weekly overview of activities by the Chinese military in the airspace and waters surrounding Taiwan. These activities include incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) and can be seen as an indicator of the level of geopolitical tensions.
34 detected aircraft last week, compared to 28 per week on average over the last two months
Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) comprises of the island’s airspace plus a significantly wider area over water and land. Taiwan’s ADIZ is unilaterally declared and was originally designed by the US military after the Second World War. Although the northwestern portion of Taiwan’s ADIZ covers parts of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces on the Chinese mainland, the Taiwanese government only reports Chinese incursions into the part of the zone that is southeast of the Taiwan Strait median line. The Taiwanese ADIZ overlaps with China’s ADIZ over the East China Sea.
Selection of news articles
Recent developments around Taiwan that have an impact on China’s geopolitical position and regional stability in East-Asia. We have selected and summarised the most important articles for you, so you are fully up to speed. The information we share is fact-based and up-to-date, and is further supported with our own comments.
22 November 2023
Most Taiwanese do not view US as ‘trustworthy’ but majority believe in its security commitment
A majority of Taiwanese do not view the US as a “trustworthy” country, a recent survey has found, despite most respondents saying they believe in Washington’s security commitment to the islan…
Indicators to watch
We monitor the following criteria in order to assess their impact on the four scenarios and to help companies decide on the right timing to prepare for, and execute, a possible exit strategy.
Black swans are sudden, unexpected events that can be major game-changers, but that are rarely considered in the media or by companies. We keep track of developments that could lead to any of these black swan events. The Taiwan Radar will alert you in case we detect an increased likelihood of the occurrence of such an event.